Super Bowl Sunday by the Betting Report
Who to bet and why 🤝
GM everyone,
I hope you had a great week and are ready for Super Bowl LVII weekend. Pizza? Wings? Ribs? Nachos? Chinese? Sushi? I’ve seen it all and honestly can’t wait for my #SXSundaySpread (registered trademark) as we gather around the TV with friends and family and watch the Chiefs and Eagles duke it out in the one of the most highly anticipated season finales in Super Bowl history. Mahomes vs. Hurts, Kelce squared, Andy Reid vs. Nick Sirianni, clearly there is no shortage of storylines here and we’re glad our #BettingReport subscribers are along for the ride. Ok, enough hashtags Aaron and on with the alpha…Quick side note, massive respect to those who parlayed a trip to Arizona for the Super Bowl x Phoenix Waste Management Tournament.
Finally, the most exciting fact of all, SX HAS PROP BETS FOR THE SUPER BOWL. Yes, you heard me correctly, PROP BETS on a betting exchange! Coin toss, O/U National Anthem duration, Halftime Show Songs O/U, Player Props, all of it.
Chiefs 🔴 (+115) vs. Eagles 🦅 (-110)
Can we take a moment to notice how tight the Super Bowl odds are on SX? Thank you.
Super Bowl LVII is expected to be one of the closest championship games in recent memory, contested between two powerhouse, top-seeded teams — the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles — with some eerily identical statistics. For the first time ever, both Super Bowl teams enter the game having compiled the exact same number of points (546) and the same record (16-3).
Line Movement
The line for the game opened at Kansas City -2.5 and swung to Philadelphia -2.5 within fifteen minutes. Since then, it has stabilized, somewhat, in the range of the Eagles favoured by 1 to 1.5 points.
The Big 3
Here are the top 3 narratives that have impacted my picks this weekend: (1) the Eagles have had a cake walk to the Super Bowl, (2) Mahomes and Andy Reid off a bye-week is virtually unstoppable, and (3) defense wins championships, no, experience wins Championships and Jalen Hurts is lacking in that department (and is dealing with a shoulder injury).
Birds Flying High?
Let me explain Eagles fans…strength of schedule matters and the Eagles rank 31st in that category. During the regular season, the Eagles played against just five teams ranked in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency. A first-round bye based on a fraudulent NFC Conference, a Giants team that IMO is two-years ahead of schedule because of HC Brian Dabole, and a San Francisco 49ers team with McCaffrey in the wildcat, is very smooth sailing to the Super Bowl. To summarize, the Eagles were very good against bad opponents but below average against any offense ranked in the top 16 of efficiency.
Experience Over Everything
Nick Sirianni, the analytical head coach of the Eagles, is confident and aggressive in his play-calling, particularly on fourth down. But in the biggest game of the season, with two weeks to prepare a game plan, it’s hard to pick against Reid, who has a 28-4 career record when his team is coming off a bye (4-0 off a bye in the post season with Mahomes). Kansas City has experience, the best quarterback in a generation, and a point and a half to work with. Think the public has overplayed the Mahomes injury.
Big Money = Smart Money
67% of the bets are on the Eagles but only 20% of the money. Typically that is a very good sign for Chiefs bettors. Get your bets in before the line moves in favour of Kansas City even more!
Pick: Chiefs ML 🔨
Good luck everyone. - Aaron
GL everyone, let me know if you tail or fade these picks. Bye 👋
DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and for entertainment purposes. It is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.