Monaco Semi Finals Tennis Preview
Wealth, tennis and gambling. The perfect combo (SX is giving away $5k too)
While the beautiful tax haven is known for its marquee F1 event, this week Monaco host’s the world best tennis players. As we approach the semi finals we have learned two things:
The courts are VERY slow. Not sure if Monaco just is flexing its wealth by ordering double the amount of clay needed, or its just coincidence, but ace rates and hold percentages are lower here than nearly any other event on the calendar.
There is a $5,000 betting contest on this event at SX Bet that you should be signed up for. All you need to do is win a couple bets to get free money.
Now that we have gotten that out of the way, let’s find out who is playing tomorrow.
Andrey Rublev 🇷🇺 vs. Taylor Fritz 🇺🇸
How they got here?
Americans are not known for being good on clay, in fact it is a running joke just how bad they are. But Taylor Fritz, the U.S. #1, is just two matches away from becoming the first American to win the Monte Carlo Open. He toppled back-to-back defending Champion Stefanos Tsistipas in straight sets earlier today, dominating on the backhand wing while holding serve with ease.
His opponent is world #6, and Russian #2 Andrey Rublev. Andrey is in no way a clay court specialist but he seems at home on the surface and holds only a slightly worse win % clay versus his preferred hard court. Rublev beat clay court specialist Jan Lennard Struff 61,76 in the quarters to be here.
Who are they?
Rublev has one of the biggest forehands in the world, when it’s on he can dictate and dominate. The slow clay courts of Monaco give him time to tee off and take control of rallies. Rublev also the experience edge having played about 50% more professional clay court matches than Fritz.
Fritz has a big serve and amazing backhand, the thing is rock solid and he is able to force players in long back hand exchanges with the great depth and placement he has on that wing. Fritz has looked surprisingly comfortable moving on the clay this week.
How does Rublev win?
To win Rublev will need to seize control of points early and keep the rallies under 4 shots. He needs to avoid the long 6+ shot rallies where Fritz’s consistency will shine through.
How does Fritz win?
For Fritz to win he will need to avoid giving Rublev forehands he can attack and work the rallies to the backhand side where his superior consistency will shine through.
Best bet?
While Rublev may hit more winners, I think Fritz wins the match. On the sandy clay courts of Monaco the match is going to be decided by errors, not winners. Fritz’s heavy deep ball on both wings will frustrate Rublev and lead the Russian to a number of miscues.
Bet Taylor Fritz to win at -105 (1.95).
Jannik Sinner 🇮🇹 vs. Holger Rune 🇩🇰
Jannik Sinner and Holger Rune are the two best young players in the world (not named Carlos Alcaraz). The 21 year old Sinner and 19 year old Rune both sit comfortably in the top 10 and have had phenomenal starts to 2023.
How they got here?
Sinner had an epic semi-final win in 3 sets over Carlos Alcaraz two weeks before looking exhausted and falling cheaply in the finals to Medvedev. Sinner then took a week off and breezed through 3 rounds here in Monaco, beating Hurkacz and Mussetti in the last two rounds.
Rune has beat Dominic Thiem and Medvedev to get to the semi’s this week and benefitted from a walkover victory vs. Berrettini. While that might sound great, it’s not nearly as impressive as it sounds. Medvedev hates clay court tennis with a passion and has never really had any success on the surface, while former world #3 Dominic Thiem never fully recovered from a wrist injury and is currently sitting (and playing at the level) of world #106.
Who are they?
Right now it is difficult to argue Rune is better than Sinner. Sinner is better statistically on clay, had a better start to 2023 and will be playing in front of a supportive home crowd just a few minutes from Italy. But let me do my best…
They say you can only beat who they put in front of you, and Rune has been dominate this week. Rune has looked fit, fast and in-control from the opening bell of both matches. If you went off the eye test alone you would say Rune looks better this week.
Sinner hasn’t taken it easy either, winning 6/7 sets played and hitting a ridiculous 19 winners to 3 errors in his QF match up. The only concern for Sinner is fitness, he has faltered and had flat performances late in tournaments before and Rune is able to force this match to get physical and go three sets I could see the Italian getting tired.
Best bet?
It is supposed to be cold and overcast tomorrow in Monaco, meaning the slowest courts on tour are going to get even slower, and I think that favours Rune. Rune will be able to get to more balls, his drop shot will be more effective and use his superior fitness level to wear down Sinner and force this match to go 3 sets.
Bet the over 22.5 games.
GL everyone. Bye 👋
DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and for entertainment purposes. It is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.